lunes, 12 de julio de 2010
jueves, 8 de julio de 2010
Eugenio Ramirez
Question 2
I feel that uncertainty is something we must always considerer but we would never be able to control it, though you can always be prepare. Its like in war an army marching in a unknown territory, it is uncertain if the enemy will attack anytime anywhere anyhow. The only thing the commander can do is to be preparing far as many situations as possible. You can always be prepared for the most possible certain things. An example is the weather, its important to look at the weather before you go out to know what you will wear, if it's most likely to rain you will have to put appropriate shoes and take an umbrella with you.
There will always be situations where you are not sure of the outcome. Every situation is like this one way or another because anything can happen, anytime anywhere, only God knows what is going to happen next. Making an strategy for each possible situation you feel they will happen will help how to face the the situation more self-confident. Steven Jobs mentions that you have to believe and trust in something; your guts, destiny, life, karma whatever. You must believe in connecting the dots will connect and the confidence to follow your heart, which I totally agree and believe.
a) I would pay someone to make me feel confident about the decisions I take but was not able to reduce the uncertainty of their outcome. First of all because he will make me more confident. Certainty is the state of feeling certain about the truth of something, it also means a feeling of self assurance arising from one's appreciation of one's owns abilities or qualities. When you are confident about yourself you usually take the right decisions and act the right way. Confidence is the most important thing about anything, if you are not confident with yourself you wont be able to take the right decision, feeling wrong about the decision you made or could have made. If you not focus on self-confidence and only in uncertainty you will fail from the beginning, being not confident, sure, about everything that you do , you would never be able to make the right decision or at least be sure about it. This is why we have to live as it was the last day of our life. failure fails in the face of death , leaving only what is really important.
I feel that uncertainty is something we must always considerer but we would never be able to control it, though you can always be prepare. Its like in war an army marching in a unknown territory, it is uncertain if the enemy will attack anytime anywhere anyhow. The only thing the commander can do is to be preparing far as many situations as possible. You can always be prepared for the most possible certain things. An example is the weather, its important to look at the weather before you go out to know what you will wear, if it's most likely to rain you will have to put appropriate shoes and take an umbrella with you.
There will always be situations where you are not sure of the outcome. Every situation is like this one way or another because anything can happen, anytime anywhere, only God knows what is going to happen next. Making an strategy for each possible situation you feel they will happen will help how to face the the situation more self-confident. Steven Jobs mentions that you have to believe and trust in something; your guts, destiny, life, karma whatever. You must believe in connecting the dots will connect and the confidence to follow your heart, which I totally agree and believe.
a) I would pay someone to make me feel confident about the decisions I take but was not able to reduce the uncertainty of their outcome. First of all because he will make me more confident. Certainty is the state of feeling certain about the truth of something, it also means a feeling of self assurance arising from one's appreciation of one's owns abilities or qualities. When you are confident about yourself you usually take the right decisions and act the right way. Confidence is the most important thing about anything, if you are not confident with yourself you wont be able to take the right decision, feeling wrong about the decision you made or could have made. If you not focus on self-confidence and only in uncertainty you will fail from the beginning, being not confident, sure, about everything that you do , you would never be able to make the right decision or at least be sure about it. This is why we have to live as it was the last day of our life. failure fails in the face of death , leaving only what is really important.
Decision Analysis: Blog 2
Eugenio Ramirez
Corporate Finance
Blog 2
Question 1
When Steven Jobs was young he read and remembered always this phrase "If you live everyday as if was the last, someday you will must certainly be right." Death is the destination we all share. Death is the only thing we can be certain about. This speech tells us basically one thing "Stay hungry, Stay foolish " The most uncertain situations in Jobs are the ones uncertain situations that came to his life. He says he would not be where he is now if it was not for those uncertain situations that came to his life. These situations started when he dropped out college and did not know what he wanted to do with his life. He dropped in calligraphy, which would later be implemented in the Mac computer. He tells us we can only connect the dots looking blackguards at our past situation, the other way around will be impossible. He talked also about love and loss. He says he was lucky finding what he wanted while he was only 20 years old, I don't say it was luck, I say he attracted it with his positive thinking and attitude. Here it was when he started Apple, he designed the first Mac before the age of 30, where he got fired from his own company. He was devastating, his focus was gone, disappointed, that he even he apologized for screwing up. He had to start over again, like a beginner who is less sure about everything. he grew from the experience and became free, creative. He said "Sometimes life hits you with a brick. Don't loose faith” The only thing that kept him on was the love for what he did. The last story that he read, which I will also talk in the next answer, is Death.
Apple's CEO had a tumor about a year before his famous speech at Stanford. He was diagnosed with a vey strong type of pancreas cancer, which the doctor was almost certain it was going to kill him within 3 to 6 months. He discovered here that death was the best invention as a life change agent. Our time is limited we should not waste it living someone elses life. To not be trap with what other people think of you. But mostly follow your heart and intuition because they know what u truly want to be.
Corporate Finance
Blog 2
Question 1
When Steven Jobs was young he read and remembered always this phrase "If you live everyday as if was the last, someday you will must certainly be right." Death is the destination we all share. Death is the only thing we can be certain about. This speech tells us basically one thing "Stay hungry, Stay foolish " The most uncertain situations in Jobs are the ones uncertain situations that came to his life. He says he would not be where he is now if it was not for those uncertain situations that came to his life. These situations started when he dropped out college and did not know what he wanted to do with his life. He dropped in calligraphy, which would later be implemented in the Mac computer. He tells us we can only connect the dots looking blackguards at our past situation, the other way around will be impossible. He talked also about love and loss. He says he was lucky finding what he wanted while he was only 20 years old, I don't say it was luck, I say he attracted it with his positive thinking and attitude. Here it was when he started Apple, he designed the first Mac before the age of 30, where he got fired from his own company. He was devastating, his focus was gone, disappointed, that he even he apologized for screwing up. He had to start over again, like a beginner who is less sure about everything. he grew from the experience and became free, creative. He said "Sometimes life hits you with a brick. Don't loose faith” The only thing that kept him on was the love for what he did. The last story that he read, which I will also talk in the next answer, is Death.
Apple's CEO had a tumor about a year before his famous speech at Stanford. He was diagnosed with a vey strong type of pancreas cancer, which the doctor was almost certain it was going to kill him within 3 to 6 months. He discovered here that death was the best invention as a life change agent. Our time is limited we should not waste it living someone elses life. To not be trap with what other people think of you. But mostly follow your heart and intuition because they know what u truly want to be.
viernes, 2 de julio de 2010
Decision Analysis: Blog 1
Decision Analysis: Blog 1: "Read this text about Decision Making Heuristics (http://www.studentpulse.com/articles/180/3/decision-making-factors-that-influence-decision-..." Sidi Bouzid
02-07-2010
Heuristics is a description for experince-based techniques that help in
problem solving, learning, and discovery. A heursitic method is used to come to a
solution rapidly that is hoped to be close to the best possible answer. In other
words it is the framework of taking a decision. Heuristics is the consideration of
the elements needed to take a decision. There are many kinds of heuristics, but
three are important and commonly used; representative, availability, and
anchoring-and-adjustment.
Representative heuristics is a rule where people judge the probability or
frequency of an educated guess by considering how much the hypothesis
resembles information that is already given. Although very useful, heuristic
representativeness tends to be biased toward the belief that causes and effects
will resemble one another, examples include both the belief that emotionally
relevant events ought to have emotionally relevant causes. An example of this, is
when i want to buy a product like a Mac , I buy it because i heard form many
people before that it is a reliable computer. The second most common heuristic
is availability, availability heuristic is when people predict the frequency of
an event, or a proportion within a population, based on how easily an
example can be brought to mind. For example, when i go to a restaurant i
got used to ordering coke because its always available and easily accessible
which makes me choose it for other soft drinks. Last but not east is the
anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, describes the common human tendency to
rely too heavily, or anchor, on one trait or piece of information when making
decisions. For example, when i want to buy a car regardless of its other positive
traits i buy it for speed. Hence, speed is my anchor in this situation. According to
the text people regret decisions because of the number of options that were
available to them. Sagi and Freiland also concluded that people feel remorse
because they believe they could have made a better choice. Furthermore, regret
is also depicted when individuals revisit the other available options and
considering what satisfaction the other option would have brought them.
Personally, in my life i had to take many decisions one of the decsions i had to
make was wether i wanted to live alone at a young age or not. In the beginning i
thought it was a good idea and was very exited about it. I believed i needed to
live alone to be productive. However when i started living alone and had to do
everything alone i regreted. I thought that i made the wrong decision at the
wrong time.
02-07-2010
Heuristics is a description for experince-based techniques that help in
problem solving, learning, and discovery. A heursitic method is used to come to a
solution rapidly that is hoped to be close to the best possible answer. In other
words it is the framework of taking a decision. Heuristics is the consideration of
the elements needed to take a decision. There are many kinds of heuristics, but
three are important and commonly used; representative, availability, and
anchoring-and-adjustment.
Representative heuristics is a rule where people judge the probability or
frequency of an educated guess by considering how much the hypothesis
resembles information that is already given. Although very useful, heuristic
representativeness tends to be biased toward the belief that causes and effects
will resemble one another, examples include both the belief that emotionally
relevant events ought to have emotionally relevant causes. An example of this, is
when i want to buy a product like a Mac , I buy it because i heard form many
people before that it is a reliable computer. The second most common heuristic
is availability, availability heuristic is when people predict the frequency of
an event, or a proportion within a population, based on how easily an
example can be brought to mind. For example, when i go to a restaurant i
got used to ordering coke because its always available and easily accessible
which makes me choose it for other soft drinks. Last but not east is the
anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, describes the common human tendency to
rely too heavily, or anchor, on one trait or piece of information when making
decisions. For example, when i want to buy a car regardless of its other positive
traits i buy it for speed. Hence, speed is my anchor in this situation. According to
the text people regret decisions because of the number of options that were
available to them. Sagi and Freiland also concluded that people feel remorse
because they believe they could have made a better choice. Furthermore, regret
is also depicted when individuals revisit the other available options and
considering what satisfaction the other option would have brought them.
Personally, in my life i had to take many decisions one of the decsions i had to
make was wether i wanted to live alone at a young age or not. In the beginning i
thought it was a good idea and was very exited about it. I believed i needed to
live alone to be productive. However when i started living alone and had to do
everything alone i regreted. I thought that i made the wrong decision at the
wrong time.
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