lunes, 12 de julio de 2010
jueves, 8 de julio de 2010
Eugenio Ramirez
Question 2
I feel that uncertainty is something we must always considerer but we would never be able to control it, though you can always be prepare. Its like in war an army marching in a unknown territory, it is uncertain if the enemy will attack anytime anywhere anyhow. The only thing the commander can do is to be preparing far as many situations as possible. You can always be prepared for the most possible certain things. An example is the weather, its important to look at the weather before you go out to know what you will wear, if it's most likely to rain you will have to put appropriate shoes and take an umbrella with you.
There will always be situations where you are not sure of the outcome. Every situation is like this one way or another because anything can happen, anytime anywhere, only God knows what is going to happen next. Making an strategy for each possible situation you feel they will happen will help how to face the the situation more self-confident. Steven Jobs mentions that you have to believe and trust in something; your guts, destiny, life, karma whatever. You must believe in connecting the dots will connect and the confidence to follow your heart, which I totally agree and believe.
a) I would pay someone to make me feel confident about the decisions I take but was not able to reduce the uncertainty of their outcome. First of all because he will make me more confident. Certainty is the state of feeling certain about the truth of something, it also means a feeling of self assurance arising from one's appreciation of one's owns abilities or qualities. When you are confident about yourself you usually take the right decisions and act the right way. Confidence is the most important thing about anything, if you are not confident with yourself you wont be able to take the right decision, feeling wrong about the decision you made or could have made. If you not focus on self-confidence and only in uncertainty you will fail from the beginning, being not confident, sure, about everything that you do , you would never be able to make the right decision or at least be sure about it. This is why we have to live as it was the last day of our life. failure fails in the face of death , leaving only what is really important.
I feel that uncertainty is something we must always considerer but we would never be able to control it, though you can always be prepare. Its like in war an army marching in a unknown territory, it is uncertain if the enemy will attack anytime anywhere anyhow. The only thing the commander can do is to be preparing far as many situations as possible. You can always be prepared for the most possible certain things. An example is the weather, its important to look at the weather before you go out to know what you will wear, if it's most likely to rain you will have to put appropriate shoes and take an umbrella with you.
There will always be situations where you are not sure of the outcome. Every situation is like this one way or another because anything can happen, anytime anywhere, only God knows what is going to happen next. Making an strategy for each possible situation you feel they will happen will help how to face the the situation more self-confident. Steven Jobs mentions that you have to believe and trust in something; your guts, destiny, life, karma whatever. You must believe in connecting the dots will connect and the confidence to follow your heart, which I totally agree and believe.
a) I would pay someone to make me feel confident about the decisions I take but was not able to reduce the uncertainty of their outcome. First of all because he will make me more confident. Certainty is the state of feeling certain about the truth of something, it also means a feeling of self assurance arising from one's appreciation of one's owns abilities or qualities. When you are confident about yourself you usually take the right decisions and act the right way. Confidence is the most important thing about anything, if you are not confident with yourself you wont be able to take the right decision, feeling wrong about the decision you made or could have made. If you not focus on self-confidence and only in uncertainty you will fail from the beginning, being not confident, sure, about everything that you do , you would never be able to make the right decision or at least be sure about it. This is why we have to live as it was the last day of our life. failure fails in the face of death , leaving only what is really important.
Decision Analysis: Blog 2
Eugenio Ramirez
Corporate Finance
Blog 2
Question 1
When Steven Jobs was young he read and remembered always this phrase "If you live everyday as if was the last, someday you will must certainly be right." Death is the destination we all share. Death is the only thing we can be certain about. This speech tells us basically one thing "Stay hungry, Stay foolish " The most uncertain situations in Jobs are the ones uncertain situations that came to his life. He says he would not be where he is now if it was not for those uncertain situations that came to his life. These situations started when he dropped out college and did not know what he wanted to do with his life. He dropped in calligraphy, which would later be implemented in the Mac computer. He tells us we can only connect the dots looking blackguards at our past situation, the other way around will be impossible. He talked also about love and loss. He says he was lucky finding what he wanted while he was only 20 years old, I don't say it was luck, I say he attracted it with his positive thinking and attitude. Here it was when he started Apple, he designed the first Mac before the age of 30, where he got fired from his own company. He was devastating, his focus was gone, disappointed, that he even he apologized for screwing up. He had to start over again, like a beginner who is less sure about everything. he grew from the experience and became free, creative. He said "Sometimes life hits you with a brick. Don't loose faith” The only thing that kept him on was the love for what he did. The last story that he read, which I will also talk in the next answer, is Death.
Apple's CEO had a tumor about a year before his famous speech at Stanford. He was diagnosed with a vey strong type of pancreas cancer, which the doctor was almost certain it was going to kill him within 3 to 6 months. He discovered here that death was the best invention as a life change agent. Our time is limited we should not waste it living someone elses life. To not be trap with what other people think of you. But mostly follow your heart and intuition because they know what u truly want to be.
Corporate Finance
Blog 2
Question 1
When Steven Jobs was young he read and remembered always this phrase "If you live everyday as if was the last, someday you will must certainly be right." Death is the destination we all share. Death is the only thing we can be certain about. This speech tells us basically one thing "Stay hungry, Stay foolish " The most uncertain situations in Jobs are the ones uncertain situations that came to his life. He says he would not be where he is now if it was not for those uncertain situations that came to his life. These situations started when he dropped out college and did not know what he wanted to do with his life. He dropped in calligraphy, which would later be implemented in the Mac computer. He tells us we can only connect the dots looking blackguards at our past situation, the other way around will be impossible. He talked also about love and loss. He says he was lucky finding what he wanted while he was only 20 years old, I don't say it was luck, I say he attracted it with his positive thinking and attitude. Here it was when he started Apple, he designed the first Mac before the age of 30, where he got fired from his own company. He was devastating, his focus was gone, disappointed, that he even he apologized for screwing up. He had to start over again, like a beginner who is less sure about everything. he grew from the experience and became free, creative. He said "Sometimes life hits you with a brick. Don't loose faith” The only thing that kept him on was the love for what he did. The last story that he read, which I will also talk in the next answer, is Death.
Apple's CEO had a tumor about a year before his famous speech at Stanford. He was diagnosed with a vey strong type of pancreas cancer, which the doctor was almost certain it was going to kill him within 3 to 6 months. He discovered here that death was the best invention as a life change agent. Our time is limited we should not waste it living someone elses life. To not be trap with what other people think of you. But mostly follow your heart and intuition because they know what u truly want to be.
viernes, 2 de julio de 2010
Decision Analysis: Blog 1
Decision Analysis: Blog 1: "Read this text about Decision Making Heuristics (http://www.studentpulse.com/articles/180/3/decision-making-factors-that-influence-decision-..." Sidi Bouzid
02-07-2010
Heuristics is a description for experince-based techniques that help in
problem solving, learning, and discovery. A heursitic method is used to come to a
solution rapidly that is hoped to be close to the best possible answer. In other
words it is the framework of taking a decision. Heuristics is the consideration of
the elements needed to take a decision. There are many kinds of heuristics, but
three are important and commonly used; representative, availability, and
anchoring-and-adjustment.
Representative heuristics is a rule where people judge the probability or
frequency of an educated guess by considering how much the hypothesis
resembles information that is already given. Although very useful, heuristic
representativeness tends to be biased toward the belief that causes and effects
will resemble one another, examples include both the belief that emotionally
relevant events ought to have emotionally relevant causes. An example of this, is
when i want to buy a product like a Mac , I buy it because i heard form many
people before that it is a reliable computer. The second most common heuristic
is availability, availability heuristic is when people predict the frequency of
an event, or a proportion within a population, based on how easily an
example can be brought to mind. For example, when i go to a restaurant i
got used to ordering coke because its always available and easily accessible
which makes me choose it for other soft drinks. Last but not east is the
anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, describes the common human tendency to
rely too heavily, or anchor, on one trait or piece of information when making
decisions. For example, when i want to buy a car regardless of its other positive
traits i buy it for speed. Hence, speed is my anchor in this situation. According to
the text people regret decisions because of the number of options that were
available to them. Sagi and Freiland also concluded that people feel remorse
because they believe they could have made a better choice. Furthermore, regret
is also depicted when individuals revisit the other available options and
considering what satisfaction the other option would have brought them.
Personally, in my life i had to take many decisions one of the decsions i had to
make was wether i wanted to live alone at a young age or not. In the beginning i
thought it was a good idea and was very exited about it. I believed i needed to
live alone to be productive. However when i started living alone and had to do
everything alone i regreted. I thought that i made the wrong decision at the
wrong time.
02-07-2010
Heuristics is a description for experince-based techniques that help in
problem solving, learning, and discovery. A heursitic method is used to come to a
solution rapidly that is hoped to be close to the best possible answer. In other
words it is the framework of taking a decision. Heuristics is the consideration of
the elements needed to take a decision. There are many kinds of heuristics, but
three are important and commonly used; representative, availability, and
anchoring-and-adjustment.
Representative heuristics is a rule where people judge the probability or
frequency of an educated guess by considering how much the hypothesis
resembles information that is already given. Although very useful, heuristic
representativeness tends to be biased toward the belief that causes and effects
will resemble one another, examples include both the belief that emotionally
relevant events ought to have emotionally relevant causes. An example of this, is
when i want to buy a product like a Mac , I buy it because i heard form many
people before that it is a reliable computer. The second most common heuristic
is availability, availability heuristic is when people predict the frequency of
an event, or a proportion within a population, based on how easily an
example can be brought to mind. For example, when i go to a restaurant i
got used to ordering coke because its always available and easily accessible
which makes me choose it for other soft drinks. Last but not east is the
anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, describes the common human tendency to
rely too heavily, or anchor, on one trait or piece of information when making
decisions. For example, when i want to buy a car regardless of its other positive
traits i buy it for speed. Hence, speed is my anchor in this situation. According to
the text people regret decisions because of the number of options that were
available to them. Sagi and Freiland also concluded that people feel remorse
because they believe they could have made a better choice. Furthermore, regret
is also depicted when individuals revisit the other available options and
considering what satisfaction the other option would have brought them.
Personally, in my life i had to take many decisions one of the decsions i had to
make was wether i wanted to live alone at a young age or not. In the beginning i
thought it was a good idea and was very exited about it. I believed i needed to
live alone to be productive. However when i started living alone and had to do
everything alone i regreted. I thought that i made the wrong decision at the
wrong time.
Decision Analysis: Blog 1
Decision Analysis: Blog 1: "Read this text about Decision Making Heuristics (http://www.studentpulse.com/articles/180/3/decision-making-factors-that-influence-decision-..."
Eugenio Ramirez
Decision Analysis
Professor John Wetherell
Heuristic
- Definition- To enable a person to discover or learn something from themselves.
- They reduce mental effort in decision making , but they may lead to biases or errors in judgment.
Examples
1) Anchoring and Adjustment -People start from a reference point or approximation (the anchor) , then makes ad judgments, based in additional information. In supermarkets the way price are put is very important to make the consumer think they are buying it cheaper for what really is. An example is an item that is being sold for €50 and in another similar store is placed for €49.99. What are people going to buy? The second item, even though they are the same prim exempt for a minimal difference of one cent people are still going to think is much cheaper because is below the €50 barrier.
2) Availability - People predict the frequency of an event, based on how easily an example can be brought to mind.
-Example-There is people that think that motorcycles are not safe and people that think they are safe. I am one of the people that think are not only dangerous but very dangerous. First because I was brought up with the idea that bikes are coffins with wheels. I personally know a lot of people that have been injured in bike accident . I also don’t' trust other driver and the fact the there is no protection makes me want to ride less. I also know that about only 14% of the people involve in accidents are not injured. So I will rather walk or use other transportation even though it takes more time, than driving on a bike.
3) Representative- People judge the probability or frequency of a hypothesis by considering how much the hypothesis resembles available data as opposed to using a Bayesian calculation. Ex. "Antonio has the presence of a Politian, the humbleness of a peasant and the gift of people". What is he? A leader"
People regret their decision for several reasons. They think they could have made a better choice, they assume responsibility of the bad decision taken, they don't felll satisfied in their life because of the choice taken, the did not reach or meet their goal.
Example of personal decision
After presenting my thesis and final cases. I did not know what was going to be the next step of my life, so I spend a couple of months focusing in personal achievements and looking for opportunities. It came on January where my family offered me the opportunity to study in any University I wanted in the United States. To be honest at the beginning I did not like the idea because I am very happy in Barcelona. I thought about it a lot because it was a great opportunity that I had to take it or not, plus my family would be disappointed if I rejected the offer. I thought about it but the most important think was to choose the city and the University I wanted to live in and attend in other to make my decision. I really did not have any choice because the satisfaction and pride my family has towards my is one of the most important things in my life. I really do not like the States, I have live there many years in different places and I have my personal reasons. Since that moment I was establishing pros and cons about the countries looking at Europe as a big country like the US. The only city in the States that I knew and felt comfortable was Miami, this is because in 2003 I attended for one year to The University of Miami also known as UM and because the people that control the city are Cubans and Latin American were we all Latin share the culture among other things and is easier to establish a relationship. In most other cities they look at Latin-American, specially Mexicans lower than themselves, when I go to the airport they interrogate me as if I was going to visit the Pope and taking me pictures and registering my digitals like if I was a convict. Where is the diplomatic reciprocity? most of the countries don’t apply it, thank God I don’t need this insults. Miami is different it is not the US. Personally I love that University, the campus and the live and the environment in the campus is unbelievable, I met a lot of interesting people and I had the time of my life. There was only one thing, I got feed up of the city and the superficial environment most of the people in Miami are engaged to a society that is not real, so everybody fakes. The geography compare to Europe it has nothing to do with Miami. In Barcelona I have the beach in the summer and the mountains in the winter plus all Europe is very close, one hour and a half to Rome and Paris. In Miami the beach is beautiful but there is nothing else besides clubs and restaurants, there is no culture, no history. I started to think positively about Miami, looking only at its positive aspects and not paying attention to the negatives. First I apply to UM, being the only University I wanted to apply and was going to apply. I wrote a letter explaining my situation, I send the application with its question answers explaining I did not graduated yet because I dropped out from law school after 4 years and I decided only to work, I had the number of years required of working. My decision was made I was going to life in Miami and most probably even If I did not get accepted I was only going to that University, it was my only choice. Later I got a email from UM asking me to personally go and interview myself. I organized the trip having my family meet showing the my future University and some apartments I had already booked. I went there, did a very good interview where they where going to consider the years I worked. I told them I had studied there before and how much I liked the University, the classes, the teachers and how much I learned, they seemed happy, I was sure I was going in. I come back to Barcelona I needed my diploma so I go to uni and I find out I still needed to complete 12 subjects, it was a lot. The only way was taking them privately even though is very expensive. I told administration and the process was on work. This was situation that was not expected, I had to react quick because I barely had time to make the decision but I made it. A couple of days later I received the most unexpected mail, a mail from the person that interviewed me in UM saying the my University was not accredited so they dropped my file, telling me they where sorry. This really tear me apart, it was a very big hit for me. All the illusion, changing my mind , accepting to leave Barcelona, a city where I had live almost 4 years where I had never been happier in my life. I never lost hope, even I still have it. Told the Uni my problem and they sais they said the uni was accredited and that they were sending a letter. Of course I could not tell this to my family, that I was not accepted because my uni was not accredited! After spending a significant amount of time and money. So I waited with hope, and I waited and IM still waiting. Um answer me telling me the letter was sent to International Affairs. I had to tell a member of my family, I told my mom, she came to personally talked to the Uni. They said the same, that it was accredited but what matters at the end is what the UM says or not?? I think another letter was send a couple of months ago and I’m still waiting for an answer. SO now I am in Barcelona having to finish and pay an university where I was going to finish and I was not get in the uni I wanted being my uni one of the most expensive in the country. This fact did not motivate me at all but I could not waist time being sad, so I started to look at Universities here in Barcelona. I chose only EADA so I apply but only as a second option. I got successfully accepted , I am finishing my BBA so now I am just waiting for the green light to go to Miami but if I do not I will be equally satisfied with my decision. This makes me feel good because is a win-win situation I focus more in the positive aspects and less in the negative, so I always win.
Eugenio Ramirez
Decision Analysis
Professor John Wetherell
Heuristic
- Definition- To enable a person to discover or learn something from themselves.
- They reduce mental effort in decision making , but they may lead to biases or errors in judgment.
Examples
1) Anchoring and Adjustment -People start from a reference point or approximation (the anchor) , then makes ad judgments, based in additional information. In supermarkets the way price are put is very important to make the consumer think they are buying it cheaper for what really is. An example is an item that is being sold for €50 and in another similar store is placed for €49.99. What are people going to buy? The second item, even though they are the same prim exempt for a minimal difference of one cent people are still going to think is much cheaper because is below the €50 barrier.
2) Availability - People predict the frequency of an event, based on how easily an example can be brought to mind.
-Example-There is people that think that motorcycles are not safe and people that think they are safe. I am one of the people that think are not only dangerous but very dangerous. First because I was brought up with the idea that bikes are coffins with wheels. I personally know a lot of people that have been injured in bike accident . I also don’t' trust other driver and the fact the there is no protection makes me want to ride less. I also know that about only 14% of the people involve in accidents are not injured. So I will rather walk or use other transportation even though it takes more time, than driving on a bike.
3) Representative- People judge the probability or frequency of a hypothesis by considering how much the hypothesis resembles available data as opposed to using a Bayesian calculation. Ex. "Antonio has the presence of a Politian, the humbleness of a peasant and the gift of people". What is he? A leader"
People regret their decision for several reasons. They think they could have made a better choice, they assume responsibility of the bad decision taken, they don't felll satisfied in their life because of the choice taken, the did not reach or meet their goal.
Example of personal decision
After presenting my thesis and final cases. I did not know what was going to be the next step of my life, so I spend a couple of months focusing in personal achievements and looking for opportunities. It came on January where my family offered me the opportunity to study in any University I wanted in the United States. To be honest at the beginning I did not like the idea because I am very happy in Barcelona. I thought about it a lot because it was a great opportunity that I had to take it or not, plus my family would be disappointed if I rejected the offer. I thought about it but the most important think was to choose the city and the University I wanted to live in and attend in other to make my decision. I really did not have any choice because the satisfaction and pride my family has towards my is one of the most important things in my life. I really do not like the States, I have live there many years in different places and I have my personal reasons. Since that moment I was establishing pros and cons about the countries looking at Europe as a big country like the US. The only city in the States that I knew and felt comfortable was Miami, this is because in 2003 I attended for one year to The University of Miami also known as UM and because the people that control the city are Cubans and Latin American were we all Latin share the culture among other things and is easier to establish a relationship. In most other cities they look at Latin-American, specially Mexicans lower than themselves, when I go to the airport they interrogate me as if I was going to visit the Pope and taking me pictures and registering my digitals like if I was a convict. Where is the diplomatic reciprocity? most of the countries don’t apply it, thank God I don’t need this insults. Miami is different it is not the US. Personally I love that University, the campus and the live and the environment in the campus is unbelievable, I met a lot of interesting people and I had the time of my life. There was only one thing, I got feed up of the city and the superficial environment most of the people in Miami are engaged to a society that is not real, so everybody fakes. The geography compare to Europe it has nothing to do with Miami. In Barcelona I have the beach in the summer and the mountains in the winter plus all Europe is very close, one hour and a half to Rome and Paris. In Miami the beach is beautiful but there is nothing else besides clubs and restaurants, there is no culture, no history. I started to think positively about Miami, looking only at its positive aspects and not paying attention to the negatives. First I apply to UM, being the only University I wanted to apply and was going to apply. I wrote a letter explaining my situation, I send the application with its question answers explaining I did not graduated yet because I dropped out from law school after 4 years and I decided only to work, I had the number of years required of working. My decision was made I was going to life in Miami and most probably even If I did not get accepted I was only going to that University, it was my only choice. Later I got a email from UM asking me to personally go and interview myself. I organized the trip having my family meet showing the my future University and some apartments I had already booked. I went there, did a very good interview where they where going to consider the years I worked. I told them I had studied there before and how much I liked the University, the classes, the teachers and how much I learned, they seemed happy, I was sure I was going in. I come back to Barcelona I needed my diploma so I go to uni and I find out I still needed to complete 12 subjects, it was a lot. The only way was taking them privately even though is very expensive. I told administration and the process was on work. This was situation that was not expected, I had to react quick because I barely had time to make the decision but I made it. A couple of days later I received the most unexpected mail, a mail from the person that interviewed me in UM saying the my University was not accredited so they dropped my file, telling me they where sorry. This really tear me apart, it was a very big hit for me. All the illusion, changing my mind , accepting to leave Barcelona, a city where I had live almost 4 years where I had never been happier in my life. I never lost hope, even I still have it. Told the Uni my problem and they sais they said the uni was accredited and that they were sending a letter. Of course I could not tell this to my family, that I was not accepted because my uni was not accredited! After spending a significant amount of time and money. So I waited with hope, and I waited and IM still waiting. Um answer me telling me the letter was sent to International Affairs. I had to tell a member of my family, I told my mom, she came to personally talked to the Uni. They said the same, that it was accredited but what matters at the end is what the UM says or not?? I think another letter was send a couple of months ago and I’m still waiting for an answer. SO now I am in Barcelona having to finish and pay an university where I was going to finish and I was not get in the uni I wanted being my uni one of the most expensive in the country. This fact did not motivate me at all but I could not waist time being sad, so I started to look at Universities here in Barcelona. I chose only EADA so I apply but only as a second option. I got successfully accepted , I am finishing my BBA so now I am just waiting for the green light to go to Miami but if I do not I will be equally satisfied with my decision. This makes me feel good because is a win-win situation I focus more in the positive aspects and less in the negative, so I always win.
Suscribirse a:
Comentarios (Atom)